Gotta Laugh at this Economy?

I need to start this post out by saying my Mom is one of the best persons in the world.  Why?  Her house in Florida was robbed yesterday while she was at work and these guys took a lot. Her response?  “It’s the economy, times are hard and folks are desperate.”  She had a smile on her face and had a few laughs.  Wow, what a reasonable smart woman.  (I actually felt robbed, because I bought some of the stuff that got stolen!)  Anyway, she’s doing fine and getting a new big time security system put in today…the “day after” she needed it.  (<–That’s a blog post in itself, the sectors that do well in a down economy – security, health care, pharma, lead gen/performance, etc.)

So, that brings me to what I believe is the point of this blog.  People are starting to get aggressive and need to sit back and laugh a bit or take the proverbial chill pill.  This terrible economy has not only emboldened people at the lower rings of society, but also the educated circles.  I get calls on the daily from entrepreneurs asking me for free M&A advice as if I’m an information booth in Times Square.  (I get it.  People are more comfortable haggling with mom and pops rather than Macy’s…http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2a8TRSgzZY.)

But when it comes to the job market, I am getting inquiries from some fairly aggressive job seekers.  It’s as if people feel like I’ve wronged them in the worst way if I do not interview them.  I guess it is like being denied at a club that was cool ten years ago or they feel that it was beneath them to even apply.  I’m not sure, but I did not cause this recession and take that tude back down to Wall Street.   (It is only two people that I am blogging about in particular…so, keep the resumes coming!)

What I really wanted to do was give everyone something to laugh about.  The link above and the one below are tell-tale signs of the state that we are in.  Everyone needs a little bit of my mom’s positive attitude (including myself) and laugh at the economy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6IQ_FOCE6I

Best,

John


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Digital Media Valuations Update Q1 2009

This post is just an update on valuations in Q1 2009.  All of my positions from the 2008 M&A Round Up, About Peachtree (www.peachtreemediaadvisors.com) and my podcast interview with DishyMix remain the same.  I’m fairly positive that the economy will turn around in Q4 2009 and M&A will begin to show signs of life in Q4.  My position with regard to M&A remains the same as well, M&A will pick up with strategic partners first.  Most CEOs of large diversified media companies will seek smaller and safer tuck-in acquisitions with companies that they have an existing relationship with.  Looking at the number of acquisitions that are not getting done is a testament to the tepidness in the M&A market.  Many bankers are sending out press releases that XYZ is for sale, which is somewhat embarrassing for all parties. 

Here is a link to charts below in powerpoint format:  http://peachtreemediaadvisors.com/Pitch/Q12009DigitalMediaValuationComps.ppt

Commercial Alert–> (Let the onslaught of recent “they’re for sale” press releases be a clear signal that paying more for investment banking services has no correlation to better service or getting a deal closed, it only means paying more.  The solution:  Invite Peachtree Media Advisors, Inc. to your next pitch…It doesn’t cost a dime and you might learn something!)   

For the most part, public company valuations have increased slightly, which is an extremely positive sign for the digital media sector (all things considered).   Online advertising valuations are slightly down and, as discussed in the 2008 M&A Round Up, the e-commerce group is showing significant valuation growth due to anticipated growth in online purchases.  Price conscious consumers will likely continue to capitalize on their broadband Internet access and conduct price comparison searches online prior to making a purchase. 

Online Advertising Comps Q1 2009

Online Advertising Comps Q1 2009

 

Interactive Marketing Services Q1 2009

Interactive Marketing Services Q1 2009

B2B Comps Q1 2009

B2B Comps Q1 2009

 

E-commerce Comps Q1 2009

E-commerce Comps Q1 2009

Diversified Media Q1 2009

Diversified Media Q1 2009

 

Overall, this could be a bottom and it is not that bad.  When I started in this business in 1995, six times EBITDA was a good price for a media company.  Somehow the Internet came along and sent valuations to the moon.  I think that we are in the Junior Year of the Internet, with the first bubble burst being the Freshman year  15 pounds and the most recent burst in valuation being sophomoric arrogance.  I use the word arrogance in the sense that many business models were based on cool applications that would then be supported by some ad network.  It is now clear what happens when ad revenue from those ad networks run dry. 

In the coming Junior year phase of the Internet, entrpreneurs will likely focus on their customers and learning significantly more about their constituents.  The customers are clearly the advertisers and, hopefully, the next wave of digital media companies will have natural or endemic advertisers in mind prior to launching their businesses.  Media 101 Advanced Placement.   

Out-of-Home Media Q1 2009

Out-of-Home Media Q1 2009


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What is the value of my company?

The most common question that I get from entrepreneurs is “what is the value of my company?”  The answer to that question is simply what someone is willing to pay for your company at a single point in time.  That said, the primary variables to valuing a digital media company are the growth rate, competitive landscape (market metrics/trends) and the strategic buyer group. 

Just like any asset, a digital media company’s value is derived from the anticipated cash that can be  derived from owning that particular asset as well as the condition and prices of similar assets in the market.  Today, the value of most digital media companies is not derived from following the traditional corporate finance  practice of discounting the projected cash flows at a representative discount rate.  Future cash flows are difficult to predict and one buyer is going to have a completely different opinion on how to make monetize an asset from another buyer.

Comparable private company transaction values and the valuation multiples of publicly traded companies (“comps”) are a good way to ascertain a valuation range.  Unfortunately, these are only tools that can provide a business owner with a range, which are typically based on multiples of Revenue and EBITDA.  These  metrics fall short in pinpointing the actual value at which a transaction should take place.

Three of the most common statements that I get from clients that are not factors related to valuation are the following: 1) Company XYZ received $30 million and my site is better than theirs; 2) All the buyer has to do is add advertising and invest a little bit of money in marketing, then we will be an $X million company based on those revenue multiples (that’s like me saying all I have to do is lose some weight and take acting classes and then I’ll be the next Denzel Washington)…forecasting is taken into account in M&A, but buyers typically do not want to pay for what they are bringing to the table; and 3) the most common statement is “I believe my company’s value is $X million,” which is an arbitrary number that is based on external factors that have nothing to do with the business, such as this is what I want for the number of years that were put into the company, this is how much money I want at this point in my life or I can live comfortably off of this amount for however many years.  Who knows the exact psychological rationale, but many of the reasons for seller value have little to do with the asset (at first).

So, instead of asking “what is the value of my company” an entrepreneur should be asking themselves “how and when do I achieve maximum value for my company?”  The best way to maximize value is to hire an investment banker that focuses on your sector and selling to the company that needs your company the most at the time when they are motivated buyers.  Although an entrepreneur can run the process themselves, and many are successful at doing so, oftentimes hiring an advisor is money well spent.  Not only is it a piece of mind, but it saves the business owner a great deal of time that can and should be spent on running their business. 

Similar to getting a second opinion from a doctor, the entrepreneur should get the opinions of multiple bankers.  This will help the entrepreneur get a better feel for where her company is valued or its potential value.  In choosing a banker, the business owner should choose the banker that they feel most comfortable with, understands her business, and knows who the potential strategic buyers are and why they would want to own her company. 

As a banker, I clearly believe that the sell process generates the highest possible valuation and best deal structure for clients in the right environment.  Entrepreneurs that believe they will be looking to sell in the next year or two should begin speaking with advisors now.  Deal-making in the coming months is going to be done with surgical precision, meaning there will be few wide nets cast by buyers, but simple lines cast for very specific targets that complement current operations.  Having an advisor that understands your business completely will serve you well in the marketing process.


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First Blog Post

How can I be an investment banker for social media companies and not have a blog?  That was a thought that came into my head a year ago and I am now just issuing my first blog post.  So, if there was one good thing to come out of this economic recession and subdued M&A environment, it is the fact that I’m putting my fingers where my mouth is.  I am now walking the walk as they say and experimenting with social media tools. 

Although I signed up for a Twitter account as well as this WordPress account, do not expect me to start sending out massive amounts of Tweets.  I signed up for both of these tools in order to get a bird’s eye view of their business models and am not convinced that Twitter has a sustainable business model.  There is an up-sell to premium services on WordPress, which is clearly a way to make additional revenue.  Twitter on the other hand is publicly available text messaging and feels like a fad to me.  Kind of like roller blades in the 90s. 

Well, I guess I should try not to be too long-winded on my first blog post.  I can already feel it being kind of addictive.  Just typing random thoughts that may or may not be of use to someone.  I do promise though, I’ll try to keep the blog focused on mergers, acquisitions and capital raised in the digital media space.  But sometimes, I might throw in my opinion on something.  Is that not what blogging is, one big Op Ed piece?


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