Valuations are Inching Higher

Digital Media company valuations are beginning to increase.  As seen in the chart below, the average revenue multiple for consumer digital media companies is 3.5x Revenue.  This revenue multiple is clearly below the lofty 5x to 10x revenue multiples of 2005 and 2006, but substantially higher than where multiples were at this point last year.  Although valuations are increasing due to a better economic outlook and advertising environment, do not expect a super-charged M&A environment.   Many transactions are going to involve strategic acquisitions with scale as well as small tuck-in acquisitions of current partner companies.  As Hearst’s acquisition of iCrossing for $375 million shows, CEOs are making large strategic acquisitions that take them to a new place with minimal scalability risk (healthy, profitable and growing).

On the other hand, larger companies will also continue cherry-picking small tuck-in acquisitions that complement their existing audiences by adding functionality or niche content.  For example, MSNBC acquired BreakingNews.com in January 2010, Time Inc, acquired personal shopping engine StyleFeeder in January 2010 and WebMediaBrands acquired social media site Rotorblog in March 2010.

The outlook for digital media M&A is more optimistic for 2010, but expect more selective deal-making.  This year companies have cleaner balance sheets and a re-calibrated strategic focus, which means that acquisitions will have to make business sense.  If the CEO cannot make a clear case for the strategic fit to her board, then she will be hesitant to take on the risk.


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The New Dishy Mix Interview

Below is a link to the 2nd Dishy Mix podcast interview with Susan Bratton and me regarding Digital Media M&A.

http://blogs.personallifemedia.com/dishymix/

Look for DM 136 podcast: John Doyle.

It’s always fun to speak with Susan and we decided to make this an annual conversation.  Enjoy!

Best,

John


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Let the Door Hit You 2009

Where the sun don’t shine!

What a stinker of a year.  Unless you received TARP money, then you had a windfall!  For those entrepreneurs fighting the good fight, here’s to us and I mean it.  Seriously.  You should pat yourselves on the back because there were so many digital media companies that went under last year.  Tough stuff, so raise a glass to the survivors.

The Internet Enters its Junior Year in 2010

The past six years were sophomoric and all about traffic.  Now it’s about revenue.  When the Internet graduates, it will be about EBITDA, assets and debt.  Yes, debt.  With inconsistent or non-existent cash flows in the digital media sector, companies are not benefiting from some of the benefits of raising debt.  As I learned in 2009, with lawyers sending bankruptcy notices and liquidating digital media assets, there are not many assets.  Media companies do not have very many assets, but digital media companies have virtually no assets (e.g., printing press, movie theater popcorn machine and projector, broadcasting equipment, etc.)

Traditional Media and Digital Media War in 2010

Clearly, the TimeWarner AOL merger will go down as the worst merger in U.S. history.  Now AOL is divesting itself and going public.  Maybe this just goes to show that you are either digital or you are traditional and there is no combining the two.

The reason media companies consolidated in the 70s and 80s was to try to neutralize the cyclical nature of advertising by diversifying their revenue streams with subscription-based models as well as hit-based models (gaming, movies and music).  This is clearly simplification of media consolidation, but my point is that digital media companies have not integrated so well with traditional media companies nor have they been able to consolidate around diverse revenue streams.  Over the last five years, large traditional media companies purchased digital media companies like tourists looking at trinkets in a Jamaican tourist shop.  They had no real desire to maximize their value, just buying the latest media darlings.  When it came to actually selling media or advertising, especially in a recession, the turf wars became apparent.  Digital media advertising became a “we’ll throw it in” the advertising buy for free as a deal sweetener.

One major thing to take away from 2009 is that digital media companies must figure out new revenue models and monetization schemes.  It was clear that the large traditional media companies treated their digital media assets like the free coleslaw at a sandwich shop.  The lack of effort by sales division to sell or cross market digital media has caused a great deal of friction and belittled digital media assets.  Now the traditional media companies are trying to divest from these “non-core” assets primarily because they refused to move into a digital media mindset.

Digital media or traditional may not be able to coexist.  The war over the television remote is just beginning.  In the 80s, the cool kid on the block had cable.  Twenty years from now, the kids will not want to assemble at someone’s house due to the fact that they have cable TV.  Video on demand content from the Internet is in the near future.  Netflix’s Roku player and AppleTV will make it interesting as Comcast tries to enhance its interactive TV features in addition to acquiring NBC.

The next year will be the year of unraveling, but a solid stepping stone for stand-alone digital media entities.  Especially, the ones who survived.


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Gotta Laugh at this Economy?

I need to start this post out by saying my Mom is one of the best persons in the world.  Why?  Her house in Florida was robbed yesterday while she was at work and these guys took a lot. Her response?  “It’s the economy, times are hard and folks are desperate.”  She had a smile on her face and had a few laughs.  Wow, what a reasonable smart woman.  (I actually felt robbed, because I bought some of the stuff that got stolen!)  Anyway, she’s doing fine and getting a new big time security system put in today…the “day after” she needed it.  (<–That’s a blog post in itself, the sectors that do well in a down economy – security, health care, pharma, lead gen/performance, etc.)

So, that brings me to what I believe is the point of this blog.  People are starting to get aggressive and need to sit back and laugh a bit or take the proverbial chill pill.  This terrible economy has not only emboldened people at the lower rings of society, but also the educated circles.  I get calls on the daily from entrepreneurs asking me for free M&A advice as if I’m an information booth in Times Square.  (I get it.  People are more comfortable haggling with mom and pops rather than Macy’s…http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2a8TRSgzZY.)

But when it comes to the job market, I am getting inquiries from some fairly aggressive job seekers.  It’s as if people feel like I’ve wronged them in the worst way if I do not interview them.  I guess it is like being denied at a club that was cool ten years ago or they feel that it was beneath them to even apply.  I’m not sure, but I did not cause this recession and take that tude back down to Wall Street.   (It is only two people that I am blogging about in particular…so, keep the resumes coming!)

What I really wanted to do was give everyone something to laugh about.  The link above and the one below are tell-tale signs of the state that we are in.  Everyone needs a little bit of my mom’s positive attitude (including myself) and laugh at the economy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6IQ_FOCE6I

Best,

John


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Digital Media Valuations Increased Q2:2009

In the period from April 2009 to June 2009, ad-supported consumer digital media companies managed to squeak out a increase in valuation.  As a perennial optimist, I will say that it is time to start breaking out the champagne.  This is the time when the storm has passed, the damage is being assessed and the rebuilding begins.  I would also state that recent lay-offs at MySpace and maybe one or two other digital media companies are the final aftershocks that, in my opinion, have less to do with the economy than factors specifically related to those media companies.

As seen in the chart below, average valuation multiples of ad supported digital media companies increased from 2.5x Revenue in April 2009 to 2.7x Revenue in June 2009 and EBITDA multiples increase from 10.9x EBITDA in April 2009 to 12.3x in June 2009.  While this is not significant growth, it does signify a bottom and that valuations are heading in the right direction – up!  To use a jogging analogy, I would compare this to turning the corner and heading back home.  (For some reason it’s always easier to head back than it is going out.)  This also indicates that sanity has returned back to the market with people holding onto their shares while new buyers enter the market at the institutional level.  Institutional money managers with new capital coming in from pension funds have to put the money somewhere and they are finding equities cheap or oversold.

Is it time to break out the champagne?  The answer is an emphatic “Yes!”  But don’t buy too expensive a bottle because the slope of the valuation trajectory is fairly low!

June 2009 Ad Supported and Search Comps

June 2009 Ad Supported and Search Comps


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500 VIPs, What Now? and Torque

Torque LogoWell, well, well…500 VIPs!  Whether you stumbled upon this site by mistake or wanted to know a little more about Peachtree Media Advisors, I’m happy you found the blog.  Please do not hesitate to give me feedback or talk me down!

I also just returned to NY from a trip to my little sister’s graduation (with a PHD) in Atlanta and only have time for a quick blogpost.  Highly aware of the half-life blogger statistic, I clearly do not want to fall into that trap!  So, here goes…

What Now?

As I just mentioned, I returned from my little sister’s graduation and the phrase I heard most often from people was ”What now?”  I guess when a student spends so much time pursuing a PHD, everyone wants to know what happens next…continue with same job, get a new, a better one, go into public service, become a professor, make a million dollars…what now?  Since most people have never received a PHD, no one has a clue what to do with it.  We’re just here to celebrate!

The term “what now” was being thrown around the way people ask newlyweds when they are going to have a baby or the way people speak about the weather.   It’s clearly just polite conversation banter or kind of a toss up phrase for “I do not really know what one does with a phd, do you?”

Torque

That brings me to my personal “What now?” moment that I had a few months ago when the market for capital raising and M&A came to a screeching halt.  Most boutique and bulge bracket investment banks put on their “restructuring hats.”  Well, nifty little Peachtree Media Advisors, Inc. began hiring and put on our strategic partnership hat.  Leveraging my rolodex and understanding of the digital media landscape, we charted a new course to help companies develop JVs, alliances and strategic partnerships (in addition to potential merger candidates).  Strategic partnerships allow companies to reduce cost structure and investment risk while sharing in revenue upside.  That is where Torque came in.

Torque is the strategic partnership division of Peachtree Media Advisors, Inc. that links digital media companies up with each other to develop complementary products and services, share in new revenue generated in cross-marketing opportunities and collaborate on new ventures.  This division is not only growing, but is an excellent product for companies seeking to preserve capital or limit exposure in this economic environment.

Keep an eye out for us, because I’m taking this division global!


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Growth in Interactive Marketing Services in 2009?

I just read an interesting article written by Mark Walsh at Media Post and based on a press release from Forrester Research.  I’m not exactly sure what to make of an article that is dated today and states interactive marketing to grow by 11% in 2009…in this economic environment.  http://www.mediapost.com/publications/?fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=105767

But I am a perrenial optimist and, as discussed in recent posts, the price of oil is beginning to increase, which is a leading indicator for commerce…when it gets to $70, then we’re growing (http://www.oil-price.net).  Also, look for housing prices to stabilize and bank lending to increase.  These two factors appear to be happening already in addition to credit being extended to corporations.  Look for prices to stop dropping and hope for an increase in interest rates.  (I just checked, this is already happening.)  An increase in interest rates means that there is pricing pressure or competition for capital.  Treasury yields are increasing, which means people are opting for slightly better yield with a riskier asset class for debt.   Unemployment is increasing at a slower rate (the lagging indicator).  Now we’ve just got to look at the price of commodities…an increase in these would mean that more stuff is being made as well as shipped.   Then new people will hired to produce more goods and, last but clearly not least, corporations will begin advertising more to make sure those goods are sold. 

I think this is the calm after the storm, when people begin peaking their heads out of their doorways.  There may be some thunder, but it appears the storm has passed.  Now is the time to assess the damage and rebuild.  According to Forrester, most of this growth in interactive marketing will not come from new advertising, but from displaced ad dollars from traditional media channels.  So, I would not take their assessment as the pie is getting bigger by any means and would dress accordingly before venturing out the door.


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New Media Strategic Partnerships and Joint Ventures

In this economic environment, it’s time to dust off the Peachtree Media Advisors’ Strategic Partnership and Biz Dev products that were collecting dust in the back storage room.  This blogpost is the equivalent of a local merchant retailer bringing the umbrellas to the front of the store when it rains or the beach blankets and coolers (happy thoughts) in the summer time.  In order for digital media companies to survive and flourish in this economic environment,  it is a good time to put emphasis on developing strategic partnerships.

A few weeks ago, I had a conversation with a digital out-of-home CEO.  Prior to the call, I looked at his Web site and media kit.  My first reaction was, ”Wow, this company has grown a ton this past year.”  On our call, the CEO told me that he had developed strategic partnerships with similar companies with ad inventory in different markets.  This CEO called a meeting with his so called competitors and said, “Look, we are not competitors.  Yes, we have the same product (digital signage), but it’s in different markets.  The way I see it, it’s us against traditional (billboards).”  The strategic partnership allowed each company to sell the others’ ad inventory in different markets, which gave each company scale.  If one of them had their foot in the door at an agency, then why not sell more markets to the agency and appear to have a larger national footprint in the process?

Similar to acquisitions and mergers, strategic partnerships need to make sense.  When I look at acquisitions, I start with the end user.  The end user is always the pivot point in analyzing an acquisition.   The goal in any strategic acquisition should start with obtaining more of a particular end user’s money, spend or budget.  Typically, a parent company has a direct relationship with an end user and purchases a company that also sells products to that exact same person.  (This is also called a vertical market.)  By leveraging a direct sales relationship with that end user, the buyer can benefit from certain economies of scale associated with targeting that end user (advertising, sales infrastructure, marketing, back office, etc.)

Strategic partnerships and joint ventures also start with the end user, except both entities remain separately owned.  The primary reasons for partnering or establishing a joint venture are to reduce cost and share revenue.  Typically, companies that are direct competitors with similar products and end users partner to reduce costs (magazine racking, beer or soda distribution or transporting products to overseas markets).  Most strategic partnerships evolve from companies with different specialties or assets that would rather not try to recreate the partner company’s product or service.

Why Partner? 

Strategic partnerships and joint ventures can help companies create new products, reduce costs, penetrate other markets, develop a network to reach scale to survive, and generate more cash from selling someone else’s products or allowing someone else to sell their products.  Similar to a rugby scrum, strategic partnerships and networks allow companies to lock arms and cover more ground as a stronger unit than they could individually.  Whether it is bargaining power, reduced investment risk, reduced admin costs, improved service or improved performance, strategic alliances are an important aspect of corporate development and survival.

In an attempt to keep this blog post from being too long, I will discuss digital media partnerships in general as opposed to giving examples of other industries (airline, auto, beverage, snack food…) or specific digital media sectors, such as Internet, mobile, video, signage, interactive marketing services and many other digital media verticals.   Most digital media strategic partnerships involve either content, audience/traffic, technology or advertising revenue.  The objectives are even simpler – to produce more revenue or lower costs and risks.

In  digital media, strategic partnership agreements can be Content for Traffic (typical Yahoo relationship); Rev Shares; Content Production or Distribution; Branded Content or Sponsorship; Traffic (links); and E-Commerce (interactive marketing services/lead gen).    A digital media partner company has one of the following:  a technology or service that the other company does not have; access to a complementary audience or demographic group; direct relationship with advertiser or agency; and/or a distribution channel, application or unique form of media content.  In partnering, the relationship is mutually beneficial where each party sees a clear path to increasing revenue or reducing costs.

Structuring Partnerships

Strategic partnerships are similar to acquisitions, and both are comprable to human relationships.  An acquisition would be considered marriage and a strategic partnership would be living together while keeping your separate residences.  As in any relationship, there can be a beginning, middle and end.  The good ones last forever and the bad ones can fizzle out or end ugly.  In structuring a strategic partnership though, companies need to figure out how the relationship ends before it begins.  That is the ugly truth about structuring them.   

Structuring a strategic partnership is the easy part, since all it takes is planning and communication…executing them is the hard part.  Execution takes commitment and trust.  The partnership agreement should clearly articulate what each party is expected to input or contribute and describe the expected outcome(s) of those contributions in addition to each party’s ownership of that outcome.  The agreement should then discuss duration and the terms for extending the relationship.  Agreements also account for what happens when things do not go according to plan.  In a perfect world, companies would just take their equipment and go their separate ways.  If it were only that easy.

Executing a strategic partnership can be difficult because neither party wants to be caught putting more into the partnership than the other.  This is why the right combination of trust and leap of faith need to go into a “relationship.”  Neither party wants to be the one doing all the work or contributing much more than the other for an equal portion of the outcome.  Therefore, agreements have to clearly articulate what is expected from each party in terms of contribution (money, technology, traffic or content).  If those contributions are not met, then there needs to be some sort of discussion as to why, such as a clause that triggers a meeting or conference.  If the discussion, mediation or mending conference does not work, then the approved champions or officers of the partnership can enact the pre-planned steps to unravel the partnership.  This scenario can get squirrely when the partnership is a 50-50 joint venture or one party has put a significant amount of money into the partnership.   

Pitfalls and Drawbacks

Strategic partnerships are a means to reduce overall development and marketing risk, but with any business endeavor there is risk.  Strategic partnerships are no different and carry inherent relationship risk.  One party brings a knowledge-base to the table that reduces the risk for developing a product and introducing it to its end users, vertical market or overseas market.  Although business risk is reduced, relationship risk is added to the formula.  The best way to manage or eliminate relationship is to find a good strategic partner.  (By the way, this is where Peachtree Media Advisors can play an integral role.)

From my experience, the most risk in strategic partnerships is getting them off the ground (execution) or unravelling an unsuccessful partnership (divorce).  In getting them off the ground, trust and expertise are primary impediments to success.  One party does not see the benefit or feels that they are bringing much more to the table.  (Kind of like me and Michael Jordan playing a pick up game of basketball or playing a scramble with Tiger Woods.)  The most risk in unravelling a strategic partnership is one party has taken a free ride while another party has done all the work.  What might have been equal contribution in the beginning, can quickly turn into a free ride.  This is typical of upstarts using the dormant or shelved IP of a larger corporation.  A deal is a deal though.

When a strategic partnership is going well, it is easy to tell.  And as the saying goes, “If it ain’t broke, then don’t fix it.”  Both parties can ride the relationship into prosperity.

John Doyle


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New Media Investment Banking

green-logo1The new media investment banking landscape has changed to favor smaller firms and boutique investment banks.  The old model of investment banking, which requires a heavy staff of partners, managing directors, vice presidents, directors, associates, analysts, research departments, Fed Ex staff, assistants, graphics design department for presentations and a line of Lincoln Towncars to take each banker down the block does not work the digital media landscape today.  The majority of these interactive companies need specialized investment banking services not provided by the bulge bracked investment banks, such as capital raise, strategic partnership, business development, and sell side merger and acquisition advisory services.  Digital media companies today need an investment banker that can help them structure deals with potential strategic partners as well as raise them capital and keep them abreast of the evolving M&A market.

Boutique investment banks like Peachtree Media Advisors, Inc. offer an array of these services that help entrepreneurs grow their business in a fast changing and increasingly competitive market.  There are other digital media investment banking firms that offer similar services and have closed more transactions, but Peachtree Media Advisors is the only one that focuses solely on digital media.  In addition, “my firm” only staffs up when projects come in.  Lean and mean.  (www.PeachtreeMediaAdvisors.com) by the way.

In this economy it is easier to staff up when a project comes in.  There is a substantial amount of financial talent out there looking to take on project work on a contract basis.  It seems illogical from a business perspective to keep a large support staff on payroll.  (Kind of like a movie director keeping the cast and crew on payroll until the next movie.)  This is just one man’s opinion, but the boutique digital media investment banking model can be and should be as nimble as the companies they are representing.

As for the bulge bracket investment banks, those days of a 20 person deal team on a $100 million transaction need to be over.  Really?  I mean $50K monthly retainers are ridiculous.   And more importantly, why would you want to take merger and acquisition advice from an investment banking group that is competing internally with derivatives and mortgage-backed securities traders.   Bulge bracket investment banks are triple-dipping…taking TARP money, insurance money from AIG for those same assets and are now about to re-purchase these bad assets backed by government money.  Wow.  Huzpah.

My point is that Managing Directors at bulge brackets charge high fees just to send out a press release that a company is for sale.  I believe that the value add of bulge bracket firms in a complex and rapidly changing interactive environment is limited on account that most digital media companies do not need many of the investment banking products that they offer – debt raising and collateralized debt obligation structuring…few of these companies have large enough cash flow to raise a debenture round.  In addition, the IPO market has all but dried up.  When is the last time you saw a small digital media company “need” a research analyst following them?  (Remember the days when managing directors used to whoo companies with their all-star analyst…some guy who ran a few Factset models and was now an industry expert.”)  These days digital media is a ground floor pounding the pavement hitting conferences environment.  Lincoln Towncars and research analysts are so 90s!

My advice, check out the boutiques.  You’ll get better advice and it will save you a ton of money.  Most importantly, invite Peachtree Media Advisors, Inc. to your pitch.


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